Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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An Outlook of Changes in the Flowering Dates and Low Temperature after Flowering under the RCP8.5 Projected Climate Condition

기후변화 시나리오에 근거한 과수 개화기 변화 및 개화 후 저온 발생 전망

  • Kim, Dae-jun (National Center for Agro-Meteorology, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Jin-Hee (National Center for Agro-Meteorology, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2018.11.06
  • Accepted : 2018.12.10
  • Published : 2018.12.30
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Abstract

In the spring of 2018, opened-flowers of fruit trees were frozen to death due to abnormal low temperature around Jeonbuk Province and southern Gyeonggi Province areas. In the 2000s, abnormal weather is observed all over the world very frequently. As a consequence, various sectors of the society suffer from economic damage and negative effects of the abnormal weather. Moreover, recent global climate change is believed to increase the incidence of extreme weathers, which are out of the normal range of the local climate. It is necessary to identify these abnormal weather phenomena accurately and analyze the effects of them on crops in order to understand the effects of them on crop yields. This study projected the trend of the low-temperature occurrence in the future by predicting the changes in future flowering dates and quantifying the temperature distribution after flowering using climate change scenarios. This study targeted areas actually producing a major portion of pear, peach, and apple in South Korea. The results of this study predicted that the flowering dates of these fruits will be approximately 20 days earlier than the current normal year in the future (2071-2100) for the study area. Moreover, it was found that the distribution of low temperature would vary by fruit type and region to some degree. The results of this study present only a portion of fruit trees cultivars grown in South Korea. It was expected that, when this approach is applied to various crops and fruit trees, it will be possible to contribute to preparing countermeasures for climate change in the agricultural sector.

2018년 봄, 갑작스러운 이상저온으로 인해, 전북, 경기 남부지역 등을 중심으로 개화된 과수 작목의 꽃이 얼어 죽는 일이 발생하였다. 2000년대 들어서면서 전 세계적으로 빈번하게 발생하고 있는 이상기후 현상으로 인해, 사회 여러 분야에 경제적인 피해와 악영향이 증가 하고 있다. 최근의 기후변화는 지구온난화와 더불어, 지역 기후의 정상 범위로부터 벗어나는 기상이변의 발생빈도 또한 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 기후변화가 농작물 생산에 미치는 영향을 파악하기 위해서는 이러한 이상기상 현상을 정확하게 파악하고 이에 따른 농작물의 영향을 분석할 필요가 있다. 본 연구에서는 배, 복숭아, 사과 작물이 실제 재배되고 있는 국내 주산 지역에 대하여 기후변화 시나리오를 이용하여, 미래 개화일의 변화를 각각 예측하고, 개화 후 온도 분포를 정량화함으로써, 미래의 저온 발생 추세를 전망하였다. 그 결과 온난화로 인해 개화기는 현재 재배중인 지역을 대상으로 모든 과종에 대하여 현재 평년을 기준으로, 미래 평년(2071-2100)에는 약 20일 정도 앞당겨 질 것으로 예상되었으며, 개화 후 저온의 분포는 과종, 지역 별로 일정 부분 차이가 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 본 연구는 일부 과수 작목 및 품종에 한해 진행된 연구결과를 제시한 것으로, 차후 다양한 품종 및 작목으로 연구를 확대한다면, 미래 농업부문 대책 마련에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1. Study areas (main production area for each fruit tree). Adjacent cities and municipals were merged into one region for the study.

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Fig. 2. Changes in the flowering date of pear (Niikata) and changes in the annual mean flowering date when a future climate change scenario was applied.

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Fig. 3. Distribution of the lowest temperature for 20 days after fruits flowering (unit:℃). (A: Anseong-Cheonan area B: Naju area, C: Cheongdo-Gyeongsan-Yeongcheon area D: Eumseong area, E: Andong- Cheongsong-Yeongju area and F: Jangsu area, respectively.)

Table 1. Parameter values used in the growth stage prediction model for fruit trees (Adapted from Kim et al., 2009a; 2009b; Kim et al., 2016)

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Table 2. Cultivation areas of main fruit trees in South Korea

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Table 3. Average and standard deviation of the lowest temperature for 20 days after flowering

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