Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography (한국측량학회지)

Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography (한국측량학회)
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Prediction of Urban Land Cover Change Using Multilayer Perceptron and Markov Chain Analysis

다층 퍼셉트론(MLP)과 마코프 체인 분석(MCA)을 이용한 도심지 피복 변화 예측

  • Bhang, Kon Joon (Dept. of Civil Engineering, Kumoh National Institute of Technology) ;
  • Sarker, Tanni (Dept. of Civil Engineering, Kumoh National Institute of Technology) ;
  • Lee, Jin-Duk (Dept. of Civil Engineering, Kumoh National Institute of Technology)
  • Received : 2018.03.29
  • Accepted : 2018.04.18
  • Published : 2018.04.30
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Abstract

The change of land covers in 2026 was prediceted based on the change of urbanization in 1996, 2006 and 2016 in Seoul and surrounding areas in this study. Landsat images were used as the basic data, and MLP (Multilayer Perceptron) and MCA (Markov Chain Analysis) were integrated for future prediction for the study area. The land cover transition potentials were calculated by setting up sub-models in MLP and the driving factors of land cover transition from 1996 to 2006 and transition probabilities were calculated using MCA to generate the land cover map of 2016. This was compared to the land cover map of 2016 from Landsat. MLP and MCA were verified and the future land covers of 2026 were predicted using the land cover map from Landsat in 2006 and 2016. As a result, it was predicted that the major land cover changes from 1996 to 2006 were from Barren Land and Grass Land to Builtup Area, and the same trend of transition will be remained for 2026. This study is meaningful in that it is applied for the first time to predict the future coating change in Seoul and surrounding areas by the MLP-MCA method.

본 연구에서는 1996년, 2006년, 2016년의 서울과 주변지역의 도시화로 인한 피복변화를 바탕으로 2026년의 피복 변화를 예측하였다. 기초 자료로 Landsat 영상을, 미래 예측을 위해 MLP와 MCA를 융합하여 연구지역에 대해 적용하였다. MLP에서는 1996년과 2006년의 피복도를 이용하여 하부 모델과 전이 유발 인자를 설정하여 피복 전이 잠재력을 산출하고, MCA를 이용하여 피복 전이 확률 계산하여 2016년의 피복도를 생성하였다. 이는 Landsat에서 얻어진 2016년 피복도와 비교하여, 모델 검증을 실시하고, Landsat에서 얻어진 2006년과 2016년 피복도를 이용하여 2026년도의 미래 피복을 예측하였다. 결과로 1996년부터 2016년까지 피복변화의 대부분은 나지, 초지(식생 혼합)로부터 개발지로의 변화가 두드러졌으며, 2026년도의 미래 피복도 나지와 초지로부터 개발지로의 변화가 여전히 진행되고 있는 것으로 예측되었다. 본 연구는 MLP-MCA 방법으로 서울 및 주변 지역에 대한 미래 피복 변화 예측에 처음으로 적용했다는 측면에서 의미가 있다.

Keywords

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