Journal of agriculture & life science (농업생명과학연구)

Institute of Agriculture & Life Science, Gyeongsang National University (경상대학교 농업생명과학연구원)
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Development of Prediction Technique of Landslide Using Forest Environmental Factors

산림환경인자를 이용한 산사태위험성 예측기법의 개발

  • Lee, Sung-Jae (Seoul National University Forest) ;
  • Ma, Ho-Seop (Department of Forest Environmental Resources, Gyeongsang Nat'l Univ.(Insti. of Agri. Llife Science))
  • 이성재 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 학술림) ;
  • 마호섭 (경상대학교 환경산림과학부(농업생명과학연구원))
  • Received : 2018.03.23
  • Accepted : 2018.06.19
  • Published : 2018.08.31
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Abstract

This study was carried out to analyze the impacts of each factors by using the quantification theory(I) for the prediction of Landslide hazard areas. The results obtained from this study are summarized as follows. According to the range by the stepwise regression analysis, it was shown in order of soil depth(0.3350) was the highest. forest type(0.1741), altitude(0.1416), position(0.1266) vertical slope(0.1236), parent rock(0.1146), slope gradient(0.1133), aspect(0.1084). The extent of the normalized score by category of 8 factors was 0 to 1.2372, and the middle score was 0.6186. The prediction criteria on Landslide occurrence based on the normalized score divided into 4 grade. It was over 0.9280 for class I, class II was 0.6187 to 0.9279, class III 0.3094 to 0.6186 and class IV was below 0.3093. The prediction on Landslide occurrence appeared relatively high accuracy rate as 97.4% for class I, II and III. Therefore, this prediction criteria for Landslide will be very useful for judgement of dangerous slope.

본 연구는 최근 국내에서 발생한 산사태를 중심으로 수량화이론을 이용하여 산림환경인자가 발생면적에 미치는 영향 분석을 통해 예방적인 측면에서 산사태 발생 위험성에 대한 예측기준을 작성하였다. 산사태 재해로 발생면적에 영향을 미치는 각 인자의 기여도는 토심(0.3350)로서 가장 높았으며, 다음으로 임상(0.1741), 표고(0.1416), 사면위치(0.1266), 종단사면(0.1236), 모암(0.1146), 경사(0.1133), 방위(0.1084)으로 높게 나타났다. 산사태 발생 위험 기여도가 높은 8개 인자의 category별 상대점수 범위는 0점에서 1.2372점 사이에 분포하고 있었고 중앙값은 0.6186점이었다. 이 점수를 기준으로 산사태 발생 위험성을 4개 등급으로 구분한 예측 판정표를 작성하였다. I등급의 점수는 0.9280 이상, II등급은 0.6187~0.9279, III등급은 0.3094~0.6186, IV등급은 0.3093 이하로 나타나 I등급, II등급, III등급에서 산사태 발생 비율이 97.4%로서 비교적 높은 적중률을 보였다. 따라서 본 판정표는 산사태발생 위험도 판정에 유용하게 활용할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 산림청

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