Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society

Korean Data Analysis Society (한국자료분석학회)
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Analysis of the Relationship between Regional Prevalence and the Average Concentration of Particulate Matter using Beta Regression

베타회귀를 사용한 지역별 유병률과 미세먼지 연평균 농도의 관계 분석

  • 조은영 (고려대학교 의과대학 의학통계학교실) ;
  • 안형진 (고려대학교 의과대학 의학통계학교실)
  • Received : 2018.07.19
  • Accepted : 2018.08.19
  • Published : 2018.08.31

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Abstract

Although prevalence is a commonly used value in epidemiology, it is not modeled practically. Generally, epidemiologist modeled using logistic regression or Poisson regression, with related values of prevalence. In this paper, the prevalence was analyzed with a beta regression using the characteristics of prevalence with continuous values between 0 and 1. Using community health survey data and particulate matter data from the National Institute of Environmental Research, the prevalence of asthma, diabetes, hypertension, atopic dermatitis or dyslipidemia and the concentration of particulate matter, PM10 and PM2.5 were estimated in 2015. The analysis showed that there were some differences between PM10 and PM2.5, but there were the significant associations with the prevalence of asthma, diabetes, hypertension, atopic dermatitis or dyslipidemia. This is no different from the recent research on the particulate matter and diseases and we can see that the regional level of particulate matter needs to be controlled to prevent the disease.

특정 시점, 특정 지역에서 질병에 걸린 사람들의 비율을 나타내는 유병률은 역학에서 많이 사용되는 값이다. 그럼에도 불구하고 유병률 자체를 모형화하는 경우는 많지 않다. 일반적으로 유병 유무 등의 연관 변수를 사용하여 이분형 변수 분석에 사용하는 카이제곱 검정을 통한 통계적 검정을 수행하거나, 이분형 혹은 가산형 변수 분석에 사용하는 로지스틱 회귀분석이나 포아송 회귀분석 등으로 모형화한다. 본 논문에서는 0과 1사이의 연속적인 값을 갖고 있는 연속형 변수인 유병률의 특성을 이용하여 유병률에 베타 회귀 분석 방법을 적용하여 분석하였다. 질병관리본부의 지역사회 건강조사 데이터와 국립환경과학원의 미세먼지 농도 데이터를 이용하여 2015년 천식, 당뇨, 고혈압, 아토피, 이상지질혈증의 유병률과 PM10과 PM2.5의 미세먼지가 기준치 이상으로 측정된 일수의 관계를 베타회귀분석을 이용하여 분석하였다. 분석 결과 각 질병마다 차이는 조금씩 있었지만 각 질병의 유병률이 적어도 PM10과 PM2.5 중 하나와는 유의한 관계가 있었다. 이는 최근 들어 많이 진행되고 있는 미세먼지와 질병에 관한 연구 결과와 유사하였고, 질병 예방을 위해 지역 단위의 미세먼지에 대한 대책 마련이 필요함을 알 수 있다.

Keywords

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