Journal of Climate Change Research (한국기후변화학회지)

The Korean Society of Climate Change Research (한국기후변화학회)
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Projection of Future Changes in Drought Characteristics in Korea Peninsula Using Effective Drought Index

유효가뭄지수(EDI)를 이용한 한반도 미래 가뭄 특성 전망

  • Gwak, Yongseok (National Disaster Management Research Institute) ;
  • Cho, Jaepil (Dept. of Climate Application, APEC Climate Center) ;
  • Jung, Imgook (Dept. of Climate Application, APEC Climate Center) ;
  • Kim, Dowoo (National Disaster Management Research Institute) ;
  • Jang, Sangmin (Dept. of Climate Application, APEC Climate Center)
  • 곽용석 (국립재난안전연구원) ;
  • 조재필 (APEC 기후센터, 응용사업본부) ;
  • 정임국 (APEC 기후센터, 응용사업본부) ;
  • 김도우 (국립재난안전연구원) ;
  • 장상민 (APEC 기후센터, 응용사업본부)
  • Received : 2018.02.26
  • Accepted : 2018.03.22
  • Published : 2018.03.31
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Abstract

This study implemented the prediction of drought properties (number of drought events, intensity, duration) using the user-oriented systematical procedures of downscaling climate change scenarios based the multiple global climate models (GCMs), AIMS (APCC Integrated Modeling Solution) program. The drought properties were defined and estimated with Effective Drought Index (EDI). The optimal 10 models among 29 GCMs were selected, by the estimation of the spatial and temporal reproducibility about the five climate change indices related with precipitation. In addition, Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) as the downscaling technique is much better in describing the observed precipitation events than Spatial Disaggregation Quantile Delta Mapping (SDQDM). Even though the procedure was systematically applied, there are still limitations in describing the observed spatial precipitation properties well due to the offset of spatial variability in multi-model ensemble (MME) analysis. As a result, the farther into the future, the duration and the number of drought generation will be decreased, while the intensity of drought will be increased. Regionally, the drought at the central regions of the Korean Peninsula is expected to be mitigated, while that at the southern regions are expected to be severe.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 국토교통과학기술진흥원