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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Understanding Climate Change over East Asia under Stabilized 1.5 and 2.0℃ Global Warming Scenarios

1.5/2.0℃ 지구온난화 시나리오 기반의 동아시아 기후변화 분석

  • Shim, Sungbo (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kwon, Sang-Hoon (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Lim, Yoon-Jin (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Yum, Seong Soo (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Yonsei University) ;
  • Byun, Young-Hwa (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
  • 심성보 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 권상훈 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 임윤진 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 염성수 (연세대학교 대기과학과) ;
  • 변영화 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과)
  • Received : 2019.07.08
  • Accepted : 2019.08.31
  • Published : 2019.11.30
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Abstract

This study first investigates the changes of the mean and extreme temperatures and precipitation in East Asia (EA) under stabilized 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming conditions above preindustrial levels provided by HAPPI project. Here, five model with 925 members for 10-year historical period (2006~2015) and 1.5/2.0℃ future warming scenarios (2091~2100) have been used and monthly based data have been analyzed. The results show that the spatial distribution fields over EA and domain averaged variables in HAPPI 1.5/2.0℃ hindcast simulations are comparable to observations. It is found that the magnitude of mean temperature warming in EA and Korea is similar to the global mean, but for extreme temperatures local higher warming trend for minimum temperature is significant. In terms of precipitation, most subregion in EA will see more increased precipitation under 1.5/2.0℃ warming compared to the global mean. These attribute for probability density function of analyzed variables to get wider with increasing mean values in 1.5/2.0℃ warming conditions. As the result of vulnerability of 0.5℃ additional warming from 1.5 to 2.0℃, 0.5℃ additional warming contributes to the increases in extreme events and especially the impact over South Korea is slightly larger than EA. Therefore, limiting global warming by 0.5℃ can help avoid the increases in extreme temperature and precipitation events in terms of intensity and frequency.

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References

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