Journal of Convergence for Information Technology (융합정보논문지)

Convergence Society for SMB (중소기업융합학회)
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Development of Probabilistic Flood Risk Map Considering Uncertainty of Levee Break

하천제방 붕괴의 불확실성을 고려한 확률론적 홍수위험지도 개발

  • Nam, Myeong-Jun (Fusion Research Institute, Sinwoo CO., LTD.) ;
  • Lee, Jae-Young (Fusion Research Institute, Sinwoo CO., LTD.) ;
  • Lee, Chang-Hee (Department of Fire and Disaster Prevention Engineering, Jungwon University)
  • 남명준 ((주)신우엔지니어링 융합기술연구소) ;
  • 이재영 ((주)신우엔지니어링 융합기술연구소) ;
  • 이창희 (중원대학교 소방방재전공)
  • Received : 2019.10.21
  • Accepted : 2019.11.20
  • Published : 2019.11.28
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Abstract

In this paper, probabilistic flood risk maps were produced for levee break caused by possible flood scenarios. The results of the previous studies were employed for flood stages corresponding to hydrological extreme event quantified uncertainties and then predicted the location of a levee breach. The breach width was estimated by combining empirical equation considered constant width and numerical modeling considered uncertainties on compound geotechnical component. Accordingly, probabilistic breach outflow was computed and probabilistic inundation map was produced by 100 runs of 2D inundation simulation based on reliability analysis. The final probabilistic flood risk map was produced by combining probabilistic inundation map based on flood hazard mapping methodology. The outcomes of the study would be effective in establishing specified emergency actin plan (EAP) and expect to suggest more economical and stable design index.

본 연구에서는 홍수시나리오에 의해 발생한 제방붕괴에서 불확실성을 포함한 확률홍수위험지도를 산정하였다. 불확실성을 포함한 극치수문시나리오와 그에 따른 홍수위가 산정된 선행연구자료를 활용하였고 이에 따라 제방붕괴 예측지점을 산정하였다. 단순한 조건에 따른 일률적인 파제폭을 제시하는 경험식과 지반공학적 복합요소들에 대한 불확실성을 고려한 물리적 기반의 수치모의 방식을 결합하여 파제폭을 산정하였다. 이에 따라 확률론적 파제유입량을 결정하였고, 신뢰도를 기반으로 100회 모의수행을 통한 2차원 제내지 침수해석을 실시하여 확률침수심도를 작성하였다. 이를 통해 홍수위험지도 작성기법을 기반으로 확률침수심도와 결합하여 확률홍수위험지도를 작성하였다. 본 연구결과는 제내지의 비상대처계획(EAP)의 정량적 근거자료로 보다 경제적, 안정적인 설계지표 제시하는데 효과적일 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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