Convergence Security Journal (융합보안논문지)

Korea convergence Security Association (한국융합보안학회)
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The Quantitative Analysis of Alternative-Decision in Missile Test: Focusing on Selecting a Foreign Test Site through Data Envelopment Analysis

미사일 시험을 위한 대안결정의 정량적 분석: 자료포락분석을 이용한 국외 시험장 선정을 중심으로

  • 한승조 (국방과학연구소 제1기술연구본부 제1유도무기체계단)
  • Received : 2020.07.15
  • Accepted : 2020.10.22
  • Published : 2020.10.31
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Abstract

Although the related regulations or guidelines are not specified in the defense weapon system R&D process, R&D authorities frequently encounter problems that require rational decision-making. If the rational process is not applied in the matter of alternative choice, the project could be disrupted, which can result in longer project periods or more resource provision. In particular, a variety of decision-making methods are needed for test&evaluation of missile R&D. The issue of selecting a test site is one of the representative decision-making problems. If it is needed to determine the priority of multiple sites, Delphi Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) will be applied. However, if the input of cost is to be considered, Data Envelopment Analysis(DEA) is more valuable to solve the problem. This paper proposes a solution to handle quantitatively various decision-making problems that can occur in missile flight test, and shows how DEA is applied through a simulated case study of selecting a foreign test site.

국방 무기체계 연구개발 과정에서 관련 규정이나 지침에 명시되지 않았지만, 연구개발 주관기관 내부적으로도 합리적인 대안 선택의 문제가 많이 발생한다. 대안 선택에 있어서 합리적인 과정이 적용되지 않으면 사업진행에 차질을 초래할 수 있으며, 이로 인해 사업기간 연장이나 추가 자원이 투입되는 상황도 발생된다. 특히 국내 미사일 연구개발 시 시험평가를 위한 많은 의사결정 과제들이 도출되며, 대표적인 것 중의 하나가 시험장 선정의 문제이다. 대안이 되는 시험장의 우선순위만 판단해야 한다면 델파이 기법(Delphi Method)이나 분석적계층과정(Analytic Hirarchy Process)을 활용할 수 있지만, 비용의 투입요소가 고려된다면 자료포락분석(Data Envelopment Analysis) 더 적합하다. 본 연구에서는 미사일 시험 시 발생되는 다양한 의사결정의 문제들을 염출해 보고, 이를 합리적으로 해결할 수 있는 의사결정의 방법이 제시된다. 제시된 의사결정의 프레임워크(Framework)는 국외 시험장을 선정하는 문제와 연관하여 모의 사례연구(Simulated Case Study)로 적용 과정이 연구된다.

Keywords

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