Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture (한국유기농업학회지)

Korean Association of Organic Agriculture (한국유기농업학회)
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An Analysis of the Impact of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) on the Korean Beef Cattle Market and Farm Labor Demand for Korean Beef Cattle

코로나19가 한육우 시장 및 한육우 농가 인력수요에 미치는 영향분석

  • Received : 2020.04.17
  • Accepted : 2020.05.18
  • Published : 2020.05.31
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Abstract

The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), first identified in China in December 2019, has widely spread worldwide and is an ongoing pandemic. It is expected that the ripple effect of COVID-19 on the global economy including the agricultural sector will increase substantially if not properly controlled shortly. This study examines the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Korean beef cattle sector and farm labor demand for Korean beef cattle using a dynamic partial equilibrium model. The agricultural production value and farm labor demand for Korean beef cattle in the scenario assuming pessimistic GDP growth rate (-1.2% in 2020) with no direct supply shocks fell by up to 4.00% and 0.67%, respectively, compared to the baseline which represents the future without COVID-19 outbreak. On the other hand, the agricultural production value and farm labor demand for Korean beef cattle in the scenario assuming both pessimistic GDP growth rate and supply shocks (-12.7% beef imports and + 2.4% feed cost in 2020) increased by up to 12.08% and 1.99%, respectively, compared to the baseline.

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References

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