Korean Journal of Environmental Biology (환경생물)

Korean Society of Environmental Biology (한국환경생물학회)
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Ecosystem service-based economic valuation of forest restoration in North Korea

북한 산림복원의 생태계 서비스 기반 경제적 가치평가

  • 임철희 (국민대학교 교양대학) ;
  • 최현아 (한스자이델재단 한국사무소)
  • Received : 2021.04.05
  • Accepted : 2021.06.21
  • Published : 2021.06.30
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Abstract

To attain the long-term benefits of forest restoration in North Korea, it is important to present the economic value of reforestation. This study as aimed to evaluate the economic value based on cost-benefit analysis from the ecosystem services perspective. The benefits of reforestation were classified into ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, water supply, soil erosion control, and disaster risk reduction, and were converted into economic values to calculate comprehensive benefits. In the forest restoration scenario, an "independent forest restoration scenario (IFS)" and a "cooperation-based forest restoration scenario (CFS)" were composed in consideration of recent afforestation performance and forest policy, and the difference in the quantity of afforestation was derived as a scenario despite the same restoration period. In the IFS, it is estimated that over the next two decades, 800 thousand ha of the forest will be restored at a cost of KRW 3,829 billion, resulting in a benefit of KRW 6.87 trillion. The present benefit net value is KRW 3,39 trillion. In the CFS, it is estimated that the benefits of KRW 18,890 billion will be generated by restoring 2.2 million ha of the forest at a cost of KRW 10,053 billion. The present benefit net value is KRW 8,359 billion. In both scenarios, BCR had an economic feasibility value greater than 1, but there was a big difference in the expected benefits. In conclusion, forest restoration can have higher benefits than cost, and its value could be enhanced through forest cooperation.

본 연구는 북한 산림복원을 생태계 서비스의 관점에서 비용-편익 기반 경제적 가치로 확인하였고, 산림복원 형태에 따른 경제성을 비교하였다. 특히 산림복원에 따른 편익을 탄소저장, 수자원공급, 토양유실방지, 재해저감 등 생태계 서비스로 분류하고 경제적 가치로 환산하여 종합적 편익을 산출하였다. 산림복원 시나리오에서는 최근의 북한 조림실적과 산림정책을 고려하여 '단독조림 시나리오'와 '산림협력 시나리오'를 구성하여 동일한 복원기간이나 조림의 양적 물량 차이를 시나리오로 도출하였다. 단독조림 시나리오에서는 향후 20년 동안 3조 8,294억원의 비용으로 80만 ha의 산림을 복원하여 6조 8,684억원의 편익이 발생할 것으로 산출되었다. 순현재가치로 경제성을 평가하였을 때, 3조 390억원으로, BCR은 1 이상이었다. 산림협력 시나리오에서는 10조 531억원의 비용으로 220만 ha의 산림을 복원하여 18조 8,909억원의 편익이 발생할 것으로 산출되었다. 마찬가지로 순현재가치로 경제성을 평가하였을 때, 8조 3,599억원이며, BCR은 1 이상이었다. 두 시나리오에서 모두 BCR은 1 이상으로 경제성을 갖는 것으로 도출되었으나, 예상되는 편익의 양에는 큰 차이가 있었다. 다만, 조림면적에 따른 단순화된 비용-편익 분석이므로, 경제성(BCR)이 유사하게 나타나는 한계가 있으며, 조림속도나 생물리적 차이를 고려하지 않았다. 결론적으로 산림복원은 비용보다 편익이 높은 사업이 될 수 있으며, 산림협력을 통해 그 가치를 증진시킬 수 있다. 장기적으로 이러한 경제성이 근거가 되어 기업과 국제·민간기구 등의 협력을 통해 다양한 형태의 산림협력이 추진되길 기대한다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 통일부의 신진연구자 정책연구과제와 한국연구재단 신진연구자지원사업(과제번호: 2019R1C1C1004979)의 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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