Korean Journal of Environmental Biology (환경생물)

Korean Society of Environmental Biology (한국환경생물학회)
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Analysis and estimation of species distribution of Mythimna seperata and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis with land-cover data under climate change scenario using MaxEnt

MaxEnt를 활용한 기후변화와 토지 피복 변화에 따른 멸강나방 및 혹명나방의 한국 내 분포 변화 분석과 예측

  • Taechul Park (Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Hojung Jang (Analysis Technology and Tomorrow (ATNT)) ;
  • SoEun Eom (Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Kimoon Son (Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University) ;
  • Jung-Joon Park (Department of Plant Medicine, Gyeongsang National University)
  • 박태철 (경상대학교 식물의학과) ;
  • 장호중 ((주)분석기술과미래 중앙연구소) ;
  • 엄소은 (경상대학교 식물의학과) ;
  • 손기문 (경상대학교 식물의학과) ;
  • 박정준 (경상대학교 식물의학과)
  • Received : 2022.06.03
  • Accepted : 2022.06.21
  • Published : 2022.06.30
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Abstract

Among migratory insect pests, Mythimna seperata and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis are invasive pests introduced into South Korea through westerlies from southern China. M. seperata and C. medinalis are insect pests that use rice as a host. They injure rice leaves and inhibit rice growth. To understand the distribution of M. seperata and C. medinalis, it is important to understand environmental factors such as temperature and humidity of their habitat. This study predicted current and future habitat suitability models for understanding the distribution of M. seperata and C. medinalis. Occurrence data, SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) scenario, and RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) were applied to MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy), a machine learning model among SDM (Species Distribution Model). As a result, M. seperata and C. medinalis are aggregated on the west and south coasts where they have a host after migration from China. As a result of MaxEnt analysis, the contribution was high in the order of Land-cover data and DEM (Digital Elevation Model). In bioclimatic variables, BIO_4 (Temperature seasonality) was high in M. seperata and BIO_2 (Mean Diurnal Range) was found in C. medinalis. The habitat suitability model predicted that M. seperata and C. medinalis could inhabit most rice paddies.

멸강나방(Mythimna seperata)과 혹명나방(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis)은 중국 남부 양쯔강 유역에서 봄철 편서풍을 타고 국내로 유입되는 비래 해충(Migratory insect pests)으로 벼를 기주로 삼아 벼 잎을 가해하여 생육을 저해시킨다. 두 나방의 분포를 파악하기 위해서는 서식처의 온습도 뿐만 아니라 주변 환경 요소를 파악하는 것이 중요하다. 본 연구는 두 나방의 분포를 파악하기 위해서 SDM(Species Distribution Model) 중 Machine learning model인 MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy)에 출현 자료, SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) 시나리오, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 시나리오를 적용하여 현재와 미래의 서식지 적합성 모형을 예측했다. 결과로 시기에 따른 서식처 면적이 큰 차이가 없었으며, SSPs 시나리오가 나빠짐에 따라 분포 면적이 넓어졌다. 두 나방은 중국으로부터 비래 후 생존하기 위한 최적의 장소가 기주가 있는 서해안과 남해안에 집중되어 있다. MaxEnt 결과 토지피복 자료, DEM (Degital Elevation Model) 순으로 기여도가 높게 나타났다. 이는 논에서의 출현 확률 높고 고도가 높아지면서 출현 확률이 낮아졌기 때문이다. 기후 변수에서 멸강나방은 BIO_4 (Temperature seasonality), 혹명나방은 BIO_2 (Mean Diurnal Range)가 높게 나타났다. 멸강나방은 계절에 의한 기온 차가 31.9℃ 이상일 때 서식처가 줄어들고, 혹명나방은 일교차 클수록 서식처가 넓어질 것으로 나타났다. 서식지 적합성 모형에서 두 나방은 대부분의 논에서 서식이 가능할 것이라 예측되었다. 하지만, 두 나방의 출현 위치를 정확하게 예측하는 데 한계가 있으므로, 서식지 적합성 지도를 기초로 조기에 대응하는 것이 중요하다고 판단된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 본 논문은 농촌진흥청 공동연구사업(과제번호: PJ01230703)의 지원 및 2019년도 경상국립대학교 연구년제 연구교수 연구지원비에 의하여 수행되었음.

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