Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment (한국대기환경학회지)

Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment (한국대기환경학회)
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Prediction of Future Climate Change Using an Urban Growth Model in the Seoul Metropolitan Area

도시성장모델을 적용한 수도권 미래 기후변화 예측

  • Kim, Hyun-Su (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University) ;
  • Jeong, Ju-Hee (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University) ;
  • Oh, In-Bo (Environmental Health Center, University of Ulsan) ;
  • Kim, Yoo-Keun (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University)
  • 김현수 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부) ;
  • 정주희 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부) ;
  • 오인보 (울산대학교 환경보건센터) ;
  • 김유근 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부)
  • Received : 2010.04.29
  • Accepted : 2010.08.11
  • Published : 2010.08.31
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Abstract

Future climate changes over the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA) were predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using future land-use data from the urban growth model (SLEUTH) and forecast fields from ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM (IPCC scenario A1B). Simulations from the SLEUTH model with GIS information (slope, urban, hill-shade, etc.) derived from the water management information system (WAMIS) and the intelligent transportation systems-standard nodes link (ITS-SNL) showed that considerable increase by 17.1% in the fraction of urban areas (FUA) was found within the SMA in 2020. To identify the effects of the urban growth on the temperature and wind variations in the future, WRF simulations by considering urban growth were performed for two seasons (summer and winter) in 2020s (2018~2022) and they were compared with those in the present (2003~2007). Comparisons of model results showed that significant changes in surface temperature (2-meter) were found in an area with high urban growth. On average in model domain, positive increases of $0.31^{\circ}C$ and $0.10^{\circ}C$ were predicted during summer and winter, respectively. These were higher than contributions forced by climate changes. The changes in surface temperature, however, were very small expect for some areas. This results suggested that surface temperature in metropolitan areas like the SMA can be significantly increased only by the urban growth during several decades.

Keywords

References

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