Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment (한국대기환경학회지)

Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment (한국대기환경학회)
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Analysis of Climate Variability under Various Scenarios for Future Urban Growth in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), Korea

미래 도시성장 시나리오에 따른 수도권 기후변화 예측 변동성 분석

  • Kim, Hyun-Su (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University) ;
  • Jeong, Ju-Hee (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University) ;
  • Kim, Yoo-Keun (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University)
  • 김현수 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부) ;
  • 정주희 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부) ;
  • 김유근 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부)
  • Received : 2011.11.09
  • Accepted : 2012.04.06
  • Published : 2012.06.30
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Abstract

In this study, climate variability was predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under two different scenarios (current trends scenario; SC1 and managed scenario; SC2) for future urban growth over the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA). We used the urban growth model, SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-Shade) to predict the future urban growth in SMA. As a result, the difference of urban ratio between two scenarios was the maximum up to 2.2% during 50 years (2000~2050). Also, the results of SLEUTH like this were adjusted in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to analysis the difference of the future climate for the future urbanization effect. By scenarios of urban growth, we knew that the significant differences of surface temperature with a maximum of about 4 K and PBL height with a maximum of about 200 m appeared locally in newly urbanized area. However, wind speeds are not sensitive for the future urban growth in SMA. These results show that we need to consider the future land-use changes or future urban extension in the study for the prediction of future climate changes.

Keywords

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