Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Assessment of Anti-Drought Capacity for Agricultural Reservoirs using RCP Scenarios

RCP 시나리오 기반 농업용 저수지의 내한능력 평가

  • 박나영 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부 대학원) ;
  • 최진용 (서울대학교 조경.지역시스템공학부, 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 유승환 ;
  • 이상현 (서울대학교 생태조경.지역시스템공학부 대학원)
  • Received : 2013.02.04
  • Accepted : 2013.04.18
  • Published : 2013.05.31
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Abstract

Agriculture is affected directly by climate conditions and changes, and it is necessary to understand the impact of climate change on agricultural reservoirs which are the main water resources for paddy fields in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the anti-drought capacity including water supply capability (WSC) and drought response ability (DRA) of agricultural reservoirs based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of CanESM2 (The Second Generation Earth System Model) provided by CCCma (Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis). The WSC and DRA were estimated using frequency analysis and runs theory. The six reservoirs (Yooshin, Nogok, Kumsung, Songgok, Gapyung, Seoma) were selected considering geographical characteristics and design criteria of reservoir capacity. In case of Seoma reservoir, more than 10 year drought return period (DRP), the variation of the WSC was estimated larger than the others. In case of Yooshin reservior (2~5 DRP) DRC was decreased in 2025s under RCP8.5. These results could be utilized for agricultural reservoirs management and future design criteria considering climate change impacts on paddy irrigation.

Keywords

References

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