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A Preliminary Study for Predicting a Damage Range of Pyroclastic Flows, Lahars, and Volcanic Flood caused by Mt. Baekdusan Eruption

백두산 분화에 따른 화쇄류, 화산이류, 화산성 홍수의 피해범위 예측을 위한 예비연구

  • Received : 2013.09.23
  • Accepted : 2013.10.18
  • Published : 2013.10.31
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Abstract

Products of the eruption of Mt. Baekdusan are identified as volcanic materials at the estuaries of the Songhuagang river to north, the Dumangang river to east and the Amnokgang river to west. More speficially, pyroclastic flows, lahars and volcanic floods can affect an area of 400km in radius, centering around Lake Cheonji caldera. However, unlike the millenium eruption, the flow situation has been changed. Because multi-purpose dams and reserviors with a combined pondage of mora than 2 billion tons of water have been built in the rivers of which sources are originated from Lake Cheonji caldera. In addition, the flow of fluids expected to take place when the volcano has erupted is thought to be affected by artificial constructions in both direct and indirect ways. This study calculates the direction of fluids flow by using numerical analyses of pyroclastic flows, lahars and volcanic floods that can occur when the volcano of Mt. Baekdusan has erupted. We also estimate the scope of damages by pyroclastic flows, lahars, volcanic flooding caused by the pondage of the dams and water storages in and around Mt. Baekdusan. Pyroclastic flows transported over the steep slopes at the early times of eruptions move over the mountain slopes, affecting airplanes, and lahars due to leaks of Lake Cheonji could reach as far as major rivers and streams near Mt. Baekdusan. Unlike historical accounts, volcanic flood is expected to be limited in its scope of influence to reservoirs bigger than Lake Cheonji in pondage.

백두산 분화의 분출물은 북쪽으로 송화강, 동쪽과 서쪽으로 두만강과 압록강 하구에서 발견되고 있다. 즉 화쇄류, 화산이류, 화산성홍수와 같이 흐름에 수반된 화산물질의 영향범위는 천지를 중심으로 반경 400 km의 범위까지 영향을 미치는 것을 알 수 있다. 그러나 약 1,000년 전 분화 때와는 달리 천지칼데라호의 20억 톤보다 저수량이 큰 담수저장시설이 건설되어 화산분화 시 예상되는 유체의 흐름은 직간접적으로 인공적인 구조물의 영향을 받게 된다. 이 연구는 백두산 화산분화 시 예상되는 화쇄류, 화산이류, 화산성홍수의 수치해석 및 지형자료 분석을 통해 유체의 흐름방향을 산정하고 백두산 일원의 댐과 인공호수의 저수용량에 따른 화쇄류, 화산이류, 화산성홍수의 피해범위를 파악하였다. 분출 초기에 급경사를 따라 이동하는 화쇄류는 산지의 경사면을 따라 이동하여 평탄지까지 영향을 미치며, 천지호의 유출에 의한 화산이류는 주요 하천까지 도달할 수 있다. 화산성홍수의 경우 현존하는 인공적인 담수 저장시설물들로 인하여 천지칼데라호의 담수 유출에 의한 피해 범위는 과거에 비하여 매우 제한적인 범위에 영향을 미칠 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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