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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Projection of 21st Century Climate over Korean Peninsula: Temperature and Precipitation Simulated by WRFV3.4 Based on RCP4.5 and 8.5 Scenarios

21세기 한반도 기후변화 전망: WRF를 이용한 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오 기온과 강수

  • Ahn, Joong-Bae (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University) ;
  • Choi, Yeon-Woo (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University) ;
  • Jo, Sera (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University) ;
  • Hong, Ja-Young (Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National University)
  • 안중배 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부) ;
  • 최연우 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부) ;
  • 조세라 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부) ;
  • 홍자영 (부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부)
  • Received : 2014.10.01
  • Accepted : 2014.12.09
  • Published : 2014.12.31
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Abstract

Historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from HadGEM2-AO are dynamically downscaled over the northeast East Asia with WRFV3.4. The horizontal resolution of the produced data is 12.5 km and the periods of integration are 1979~2010 for historical and 2019~2100 for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We analyze the time series, climatology, EOF and extreme climate in terms of 2 m-temperature and precipitation during 30-year for the Historical (1981~2010) and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (2071~2100) scenarios. According to the result, the temperature of the northeast Asia centered at the Korean Peninsula increase 2.9 and $4.6^{\circ}C$ in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. The temperature increases with latitude and the increase is larger in winter rather than in summer. The annual mean precipitation is expected to increase by about $0.3mm\;day^{-1}$ in RCP4.5 scenario and $0.5mm\;day^{-1}$ in RCP8.5 scenario. The EOF analysis is also performed for both temperature and precipitation. For temperature, the EOF $1^{st}$ modes of all scenarios in summer and winter show that temperature increase with latitude. The $2^{nd}$ mode of EOF of each scenario shows the natural variability, exclusive of the global warming. The summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula projected increases in EOF $1^{st}$ modes of all scenarios. For extreme climate, the increment of the number of days with daily maximum temperature above $30^{\circ}C$ per year ($DAY_{TX30}$) is 25.3 and 49.7 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively over the Korean Peninsula. The number of days with daily precipitation above $20mm\;day^{-1}$ per year ($DAY_{PR20}$) also increases 3.1 and 3.5 days in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively.

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References

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