Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회 논문집)

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회)
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The Analysis Method of Future Flooding Discharge considering Climate and Land-use Change using Dyna-CLUE

Dyna-CLUE를 이용한 기후 및 토지이용변화를 고려한 미래 홍수 유출 분석 방법

  • Han, woo suk (National Territorial & Regional Research Division, Korea Research Institute for Human Settlements) ;
  • Jeung, Se Jin (Dep. of Urban & Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Kim, Byung Sik (Dep. of Urban & Environmental Disaster Prevention Engineering, Kangwon National University)
  • 한우석 (국토연구원 국토계획연구본부) ;
  • 정세진 (강원대학교 도시환경방재전공) ;
  • 김병식 (강원대학교 도시환경방재전공)
  • Received : 2015.09.25
  • Accepted : 2015.10.05
  • Published : 2015.12.31
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Abstract

In this research, the analysis method of future flooding discharge considering climate change and land-use change is proposed. In order to reduce uncertainty of climate change data, RCP 8.5 climate change scenario data is compared with long-term observed rainfall data in case study area and calibrated by regional parameters which can reflect regional weather characteristics and is required parameters for daily weather generation for future climate change data. Using calibrated RCP 8.5 data, the probability rainfall of 1 day and 5 days rainfall duration is calculated by 3 different time zone(Future 1 : 2011~2040, Future 2 : 2041~2070, Future 3 : 2071~2100). The algorithm of sub-module in Dyna-CLUE model is used to calculate the future land-use change by 3 different land-use scenarios and 3 different time zone. The S-RAT which is distributed hydrology model is used to simulate the future discharge by different time zone, 1 and 5 days rainfall duration and land-use change scenarios. As a result, the peak discharge is increased as far future and more urbanized. However, climate change is more effect to increase of peak discharge than the land-use change. Although to simulate future data such as climate and land-use change has a lot of uncertainty, those kinds of research must be required to reduce future natural disaster damage. It is expected that the analysis method in this research would be contribute to more correctly quantify the future flooding risk.

본 논문에서는 기후 및 토지이용 변화를 고려한 미래 홍수 유출특성을 분석하는 방법에 대해서 제시하였다. 기후변화 자료의 불확실성을 저감하기 위해 사례지역을 대상으로 RCP 기후변화 시나리오 자료와 관측자료를 비교했고, 지역의 기후특성 및 일기발생에 필요한 매개변수를 산정하여 RCP 8.5 자료를 보정하였다. 보정된 자료를 활용하여 미래 3개 시간대별(Future 1: 2011~2040, Future 2: 2041~2070, Future 3: 2071~2100)로 1일 및 5일 강우지속시간별 확률강우량을 산정하였다. 미래의 토지이용 변화 자료를 산출하기 위해 Dyna-CLUE 모형의 서브 알고리즘을 활용하여, 3개의 토지이용변화 시나리별 시간대별 토지이용변화 자료를 산출하였다. 미래 기후변화 및 토지이용변화 자료를 분포형 강우-유출 모형인 S-RAT에 적용하여 시간대별 강우지속시간별 토지이용변화 시나리오별 유출분석을 수행하였다. 분석결과 미래로 갈수록 시가화율이 높을수록 최대홍수량은 증가했지만, 최대홍수량 변화는 토지이용변화보다는 기후변화에 더 많은 영향을 받았다. 미래 자료를 전망하는 것은 많은 불확실성이 존재하지만, 미래 재해피해를 저감하기 위해서는 이와 같은 연구는 선행되어야 한다. 본 연구는 향후 정량화된 홍수위험을 분석하는데 도움이 될 것으로 기대되고 있다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

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