Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회 논문집)

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회)
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Evaluation and Calibration Method Proposal of RCP Daily Precipitation Data

RCP 일강수량 자료의 평가 및 보정방법 제시

  • Joo, Jingul (Department of Civil Engineering, Dongshin University) ;
  • Kim, Sangdan (Department of Environmental Engineering, Pukyoung National University) ;
  • Park, Moojong (Department of Civil Engineering, Hanseo University) ;
  • Kim, Jungho (College of Engineering, Colorado State University)
  • 주진걸 (동신대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 김상단 (부경대학교 환경공학과) ;
  • 박무종 (한서대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 김정호 (콜로라도주립대학교 공과대학)
  • Received : 2015.02.10
  • Accepted : 2015.02.26
  • Published : 2015.04.30
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Abstract

This study evaluated RCP scenario's daily precipitation data from the regional climate model and proposed the calibration method of RCP data for hazard mitigation field. Three data, observed daily precipitation in 2001~2013, RCP scenario's daily precipitation in same period with observed data, and RCP scenario's daily precipitation in 2014~2100, was applied to examine the statistical characteristics of each data. As a result, it found that RCP scenario's data properly reflected climate characteristics in the Korean Peninsula for annual precipitation and monthly precipitation distribution, except number of days with precipitation overestimated. To calibrate the problem, this study proposed the method which daily precipitation less than a threshold (0.6~1.7 mm) is considered as no rain. The result after calibration has shown that calibrated RCP scenario's data properly reflected climate characteristics in the Korean Peninsula for annual average number of days with precipitation and the distribution of monthly number of days with precipitation.

본 연구에서는 지역기후모델로 생산된 RCP 시나리오 일강수량 자료를 평가하고 RCP 자료를 방재분야에서 활용할 수 있도록 보정 방법을 제시하였다. 이를 위해 2001~2013년까지의 관측 일강수량 자료, 관측자료와 동일기간의 RCP 시나리오 일강수량 그리고 관측기간 이후인 2014년부터 2100년까지의 RCP 시나리오 일강수량 등 3가지 자료 군을 대상으로 각 자료군의 통계 특성을 선행 검토하였다. 그 결과 RCP 시나리오 일강수량 자료의 연평균 강수량과 월별 강수량 분포는 한반도의 기후특성을 적절하게 반영하였으나 연평균 강수일수는 과다하게 평가되었다. 이를 보정하기 위해 본 연구에서는 임계값 이내의 강수를 무강우로 처리하는 일강수량 임계값 설정 방법을 제시하였다. 무강수 임계값(0.6~1.7 mm)으로 보정된 RCP 자료의 연평균 강수일수와 월별 강수일수의 패턴이 한반도의 기후특성을 적절하게 반영하는 것으로 나타났다. 보정된 강수자료는 추후 방재 및 환경분야에 유용하게 활동 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 기상청

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