Journal of Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회지)

Korean Society of Transportation (대한교통학회)
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Analysis of Highway Traffic Indices Using Internet Search Data

검색 트래픽 정보를 활용한 고속도로 교통지표 분석 연구

  • Ryu, Ingon (Department of Transportation Policy, Gyeonggi Research Institute) ;
  • Lee, Jaeyoung (Center for Advanced Transportation Systems Simulation, University of Central Florida) ;
  • Park, Gyeong Chul (Department of Transportation Policy, Gyeonggi Research Institute) ;
  • Choi, Keechoo (Department of Transportation Systems Engineering, Ajou University) ;
  • Hwang, Jun-Mun (Department of Transportation Policy, Gyeonggi Research Institute)
  • 류인곤 (경기개발연구원 휴먼교통연구실) ;
  • 이재영 (중앙플로리다대학교 첨단교통시뮬레이션연구센터) ;
  • 박경철 (경기개발연구원 휴먼교통연구실) ;
  • 최기주 (아주대학교 교통시스템공학과) ;
  • 황준문 (경기개발연구원 휴먼교통연구실)
  • Received : 2014.08.21
  • Accepted : 2014.11.19
  • Published : 2015.02.28
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Abstract

Numerous research has been conducted using internet search data since the mid-2000s. For example, Google Inc. developed a service predicting influenza patterns using the internet search data. The main objective of this study is to prove the hypothesis that highway traffic indices are similar to the internet search patterns. In order to achieve this objective, a model to predict the number of vehicles entering the expressway and space-mean speed was developed and the goodness-of-fit of the model was assessed. The results revealed several findings. First, it was shown that the Google search traffic was a good predictor for the TCS entering traffic volume model at sites with frequent commute trips, and it had a negative correlation with the TCS entering traffic volume. Second, the Naver search traffic was utilized for the TCS entering traffic volume model at sites with numerous recreational trips, and it was positively correlated with the TCS entering traffic volume. Third, it was uncovered that the VDS speed had a negative relationship with the search traffic on the time series diagram. Lastly, it was concluded that the transfer function noise time series model showed the better goodness-of-fit compared to the other time series model. It is expected that "Big Data" from the internet search data can be extensively applied in the transportation field if the sources of search traffic, time difference and aggregation units are explored in the follow-up studies.

2000년대 중반부터 인터넷 검색 트래픽을 활용한 다양한 연구가 진행되었다. 대표적으로 구글은 미국의 독감 발병 상황을 인터넷 유저의 검색 패턴을 통해 예측하는 서비스를 만들기도 하였다. 교통지표 역시 인터넷 검색 패턴과 유사할 수 있다는 가설을 확인하기 위하여, 검색 트래픽 데이터를 활용하여 고속도로의 진입 교통량과 구간 속도를 추정하는 모형을 구축하고 적합도 등을 확인하는 것이 본 연구의 목적이다. 그 결과, 첫째, 출퇴근의 상시적 통행이 이루어지는 지점의 TCS 진입 교통량 모형은 구글 검색 트래픽이 입력변수로 우수하였고, 검색 트래픽과는 음의 상관관계를 보였다. 둘째, 여가 통행이 집중적으로 나타났던 지점의 TCS 진입 교통량 모형은 네이버의 검색 트래픽이 입력변수로 선정되었으며, 검색 트래픽과는 양의 상관관계가 나타났다. 셋째, VDS 속도의 경우 시계열 도표상 검색 트래픽과 음의 상관관계를 보였다. 넷째, 검색 트래픽을 입력변수로 활용한 전이함수 잡음 시계열 모형은 그렇지 않은 시계열 모형에 비해 비교적 적합도가 우수하다는 결과를 도출하였다. 다만, VDS 속도 모형의 경우 다수의 입력변수가 포함되고 모형 계수의 부호가 상이함에 따른 한계가 존재하였다. 향후 검색 트래픽의 출처나 검색어, 혹은 시차 및 집계 단위에 대한 추가적 연구가 진행된다면, 교통 분야의 빅 데이터 연구시 활용 폭이 넓어질 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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