Cancer Research and Treatment

The Korean Cancer Association (대한암학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2015

  • Jung, Kyu-Won (The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center) ;
  • Won, Young-Joo (The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center) ;
  • Oh, Chang-Mo (The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center) ;
  • Kong, Hyun-Joo (The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center) ;
  • Cho, Hyunsoon (The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center) ;
  • Lee, Duk Hyoung (National Cancer Control Institute, National Cancer Center) ;
  • Lee, Kang Hyun (The Korea Central Cancer Registry, National Cancer Center)
  • Received : 2015.02.17
  • Accepted : 2015.03.02
  • Published : 2015.04.15
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Purpose For estimation of Korea's current cancer burden, this study aimed to report on the projected cancer incidence and mortality rates for the year 2015. Materials and Methods Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2012 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2013 were acquired from Statistics Korea. The cancer incidence in 2015 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to the observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against the observed years and then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. A similar procedure was used for cancer mortality, except a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly. Results A total of 280,556 new cancer cases and 76,698 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea in 2015. The crude incidence rate per 100,000 of all sites combined will likely reach 551.6 and the age-standardized incidence rate, 347.6. The estimated five leading primary cancer incidence sites are the stomach, colorectum, lung, prostate, and liver in men; and thyroid, breast, colorectum, stomach, and lung in women. The projected crude mortality rate of all sites combined and age-standardized rate is 150.8 and 82.4, respectively. Conclusion Cancer is currently one of the foremost public health concerns in Korea, and as the population ages, the nation's cancer burden will continue to increase.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : National Cancer Center

References

  1. Statistics Korea [Internet]. Daejeon: Statistics Korea; 2014 [cited 2015 Jan 24]. Available from: http://kosis.kr.
  2. Jung KW, Won YJ, Kong HJ, Oh CM, Lee DH, Lee JS. Cancer statistics in Korea: incidence, mortality, survival, and prevalence in 2011. Cancer Res Treat. 2014;46:109-23. https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2014.46.2.109
  3. Shin HR, Won YJ, Jung KW, Kong HJ, Yim SH, Lee JK, et al. Nationwide cancer incidence in Korea, 1999-2001; first result using the national cancer incidence database. Cancer Res Treat. 2005;37:325-31. https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2005.37.6.325
  4. Fritz A, Percy C, Jack A, Shanmugaratnam K, Sobin L, Parkin DM, et al. International classification of diseases for oncology. 3rd ed. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2000.
  5. World Health Organization. International statistical classification of diseases and related health problems. 10th rev. Geneva: World Health Organization; 1994.
  6. Boyle P, Parkin DM. Cancer registration: principles and methods. Statistical methods for registries. IARC Sci Publ. 1991;(95): 126-58.
  7. National Cancer Institute. Joinpoint regression program, version4.0 [Internet]. Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute;c2015 [cited 2015 Jan 8]. Available from: http://surveillance.cancer.gov/joinpoint/.
  8. Segi M. Cancer mortality for selected sites in 24 countries (1950-1957). Sendai: Tohoku University School of Medicine; 1960.

Cited by

  1. Novel dihydrobenzofuro[4,5-b][1,8]naphthyridin-6-one derivative, MHY-449, induces cell cycle arrest and apoptosis via the downregulation of Akt in human lung cancer cells vol.34, pp.5, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3892/or.2015.4208
  2. The association of physical activity and colorectal and breast cancer: The Fifth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2008–2011) vol.11, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.12965/jer.150200
  3. Effects of Total Thyroidectomy and Radioactive Iodine Therapy for Thyroid Cancer Patients on Sleep Apnea and Snoring vol.54, pp.4, 2015, https://doi.org/10.4306/jknpa.2015.54.4.495
  4. Evolution of Gastric Cancer Treatment: From the Golden Age of Surgery to an Era of Precision Medicine vol.56, pp.5, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3349/ymj.2015.56.5.1177
  5. Risk Factors and Efficacy of Adjuvant Therapy After Surgery of Elderly Colon Cancer Patients 70 Years of Age or Older vol.19, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.4235/jkgs.2015.19.3.165
  6. A pilot study of concurrent chemoradiotherapy with gemcitabine and cisplatin in patients with locally advanced biliary tract cancer vol.78, pp.4, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00280-016-3143-2
  7. Progranulin as a predictive factor of response to chemotherapy in advanced biliary tract carcinoma vol.78, pp.5, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00280-016-3170-z
  8. Uptake of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy among female BRCA mutation carriers: experience at the National Cancer Center of Korea vol.142, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-015-2051-x
  9. High resolution metabolomics to discriminate compounds in serum of male lung cancer patients in South Korea vol.17, pp.None, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12931-016-0419-3
  10. The Role of Laparoscopic Radical Hysterectomy in Early-Stage Adenocarcinoma of the Uterine Cervix vol.23, pp.5, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-016-5489-4
  11. Changes in the types of liver diseases requiring hepatic resection: a single-institution experience of 9016 cases over a 10-year period vol.20, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.14701/kjhbps.2016.20.2.49
  12. Cancer Mortality Projections in Korea up to 2032 vol.31, pp.6, 2016, https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2016.31.6.892
  13. Forecasting Cause-Specific Mortality in Korea up to Year 2032 vol.31, pp.8, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2016.31.8.1181
  14. Effect of dietary vitamin C on gastric cancer risk in the Korean population vol.22, pp.27, 2016, https://doi.org/10.3748/wjg.v22.i27.6257
  15. Pathophysiology and preventive strategies of anthracycline-induced cardiotoxicity vol.31, pp.4, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3904/kjim.2016.017
  16. Aberrant Epigenetic Modifications of LPHN2 Function as a Potential Cisplatin-Specific Biomarker for Human Gastrointestinal Cancer vol.48, pp.2, 2016, https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2015.153
  17. Comparison of Quality of Life and Sexuality between Cervical Cancer Survivors and Healthy Women vol.48, pp.4, 2015, https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2015.425
  18. The Impact of High-Risk HPV Genotypes Other Than HPV 16/18 on the Natural Course of Abnormal Cervical Cytology: A Korean HPV Cohort Study vol.48, pp.4, 2015, https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2016.013
  19. Cancer Statistics in Korea: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Prevalence in 2013 vol.48, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2016.089
  20. Incidence of epithelial ovarian cancer according to histologic subtypes in Korea, 1999 to 2012 vol.27, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3802/jgo.2016.27.e5
  21. Molecular Dimensions of Gastric Cancer: Translational and Clinical Perspectives vol.50, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.4132/jptm.2015.09.10
  22. A Lymph Node Staging System for Gastric Cancer: A Hybrid Type Based on Topographic and Numeric Systems vol.11, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149555
  23. Acute High-Dose and Chronic Lifetime Exposure to Alcohol Consumption and Differentiated Thyroid Cancer: T-CALOS Korea vol.11, pp.3, 2016, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0151562
  24. Dehydroglyasperin D Inhibits the Proliferation of HT-29 Human Colorectal Cancer Cells Through Direct Interaction With Phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase vol.21, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.15430/jcp.2016.21.1.26
  25. Value of urinary topoisomerase-IIA cell-free DNA for diagnosis of bladder cancer vol.57, pp.2, 2016, https://doi.org/10.4111/icu.2016.57.2.106
  26. Efficacy and safety of acupuncture for chemotherapy-induced leucopoenia: protocol for a systematic review vol.6, pp.5, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2015-010787
  27. Association between nutrient intake and thyroid cancer risk in Korean women vol.10, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.4162/nrp.2016.10.3.336
  28. Analysis of maxillofacial prosthetics at university dental hospitals in the capital region of Korea vol.8, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.4047/jap.2016.8.3.229
  29. 바이오메디컬 데이터 처리를 위한 데이터마이닝 활용 vol.65, pp.7, 2016, https://doi.org/10.5370/kiee.2016.65.7.1236
  30. Neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by surgery has no therapeutic advantages over concurrent chemoradiotherapy in International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage IB-IIB cervical cancer vol.27, pp.5, 2016, https://doi.org/10.3802/jgo.2016.27.e52
  31. Clinical characteristics of young-age onset gastric cancer in Korea vol.16, pp.None, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-016-0528-y
  32. Postoperative Quality of Life after Total Gastrectomy Compared with Partial Gastrectomy: Longitudinal Evaluation by European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer-OG25 and STO22 vol.16, pp.4, 2016, https://doi.org/10.5230/jgc.2016.16.4.230
  33. Validation of Nomograms for Survival and Metastases after Hysterectomy and Adjuvant Therapy in Uterine Cervical Cancer with Risk Factors vol.2017, pp.None, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/2917925
  34. The Value of Preoperative Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography in Node-Negative Endometrial Cancer on Magnetic Resonance Imaging vol.24, pp.8, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1245/s10434-017-5901-8
  35. Current Trends of Lung Cancer Surgery and Demographic and Social Factors Related to Changes in the Trends of Lung Cancer Surgery: An Analysis of the National Database from 2010 to 2014 vol.49, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2016.196
  36. Cancer Statistics in Korea: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Prevalence in 2014 vol.49, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2017.118
  37. Postoperative Helicobacter pylori Infection as a Prognostic Factor for Gastric Cancer Patients after Curative Resection vol.11, pp.5, 2017, https://doi.org/10.5009/gnl16397
  38. Capecitabine and cisplatin (XP) combination systemic chemotherapy in heavily pre-treated HER2 negative metastatic breast cancer vol.12, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0171605
  39. Development of a Protein Biomarker Panel to Detect Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer in Korea vol.18, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cllc.2016.09.012
  40. Variability in target delineation of cervical carcinoma: A Korean radiation oncology group study (KROG 15-06) vol.12, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0173476
  41. Tetraarsenic hexoxide induces G2/M arrest, apoptosis, and autophagy via PI3K/Akt suppression and p38 MAPK activation in SW620 human colon cancer cells vol.12, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0174591
  42. Inhibitory Effect of D-chiro-inositol on Both Growth and Recurrence of Breast Tumor from MDA-MB-231 Cancer Cells vol.23, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.20307/nps.2017.23.1.35
  43. Cancer Registration Manual Understanding by Medical Record Administrators vol.18, pp.4, 2015, https://doi.org/10.22034/apjcp.2017.18.4.1085
  44. Korean Treatment Guidelines for Metastatic Prostate Cancer Developed by the Korean Association for Clinical Oncology vol.92, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3904/kjm.2017.92.2.124
  45. Atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance and low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion triage in Korean women: Revisiting the 2012 American Society of Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology scr vol.60, pp.4, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5468/ogs.2017.60.4.357
  46. Clinical features of recently diagnosed papillary thyroid carcinoma in elderly patients aged 65 and older based on 10 years of sonographic experience at a single institution in Korea vol.36, pp.4, 2015, https://doi.org/10.14366/usg.17010
  47. The prognostic significance of KRAS and BRAF mutation status in Korean colorectal cancer patients vol.17, pp.None, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-017-3381-7
  48. Social Media Use for Cancer Education at a Community-Based Cancer Center in South Korea vol.33, pp.4, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13187-016-1149-4
  49. Oncological safety of use of ultrasonic activated shears in gastric cancer surgery: Long-term results of randomized controlled trial vol.30, pp.5, 2015, https://doi.org/10.21147/j.issn.1000-9604.2018.05.02
  50. Comparison of the PANArray HPV Genotyping Chip Test with the Cobas 4800 HPV and Hybrid Capture 2 Tests for Detection of HPV in ASCUS Women vol.59, pp.5, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3349/ymj.2018.59.5.662
  51. Risk factors for cytological progression in HPV 16 infected women with ASC-US or LSIL: The Korean HPV cohort vol.61, pp.6, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5468/ogs.2018.61.6.662
  52. Effectiveness of Gastric Cancer Screening on Gastric Cancer Incidence and Mortality in a Community-Based Prospective Cohort vol.50, pp.2, 2018, https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2017.048
  53. Cancer Statistics in Korea: Incidence, Mortality, Survival, and Prevalence in 2015 vol.50, pp.2, 2018, https://doi.org/10.4143/crt.2018.143
  54. Associations of perceived risk and cancer worry for colorectal cancer with screening behaviour vol.23, pp.6, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1177/1359105316679721
  55. Single-stranded DNA binding protein 2 expression is associated with patient survival in hepatocellular carcinoma vol.18, pp.None, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12885-018-5158-z
  56. The economic burden of cancers attributable to smoking in Korea, 2014 vol.17, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.18332/tid/102673
  57. Clinical outcomes and costs of robotic surgery in prostate cancer: a multiinstitutional study in Korea vol.7, pp.1, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prnil.2018.04.004
  58. Socioeconomic status and survival outcomes in elderly cancer patients: A national health insurance service‐elderly sample cohort study vol.8, pp.7, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.2231
  59. Targeted next-generation sequencing for locally advanced prostate cancer in the Korean population vol.61, pp.2, 2015, https://doi.org/10.4111/icu.2020.61.2.127
  60. Association between Five Common Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor-1 ( PAI-1 ) Gene Polymorphisms and Colorectal Cancer Susceptibility vol.21, pp.12, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijms21124334
  61. The Economic Burden of Cancers Attributable to Infection in the Republic of Korea: A Prevalence-Based Study vol.17, pp.20, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17207592
  62. Long-Term Outcomes and Prognostic Factors of Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection for Early Gastric Cancer in Patients Aged ≥75 Years vol.12, pp.11, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers12113222
  63. Feasibility and safety of fertility-sparing surgery in epithelial ovarian cancer with dense adhesion: a long-term result from a single institution vol.31, pp.6, 2015, https://doi.org/10.3802/jgo.2020.31.e85