Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences

Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Future Changes in Summer Precipitation in Regional Climate Simulations over the Korean Peninsula Forced by Multi-RCP Scenarios of HadGEM2-AO

  • Cha, Dong-Hyun (School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology) ;
  • Lee, Dong-Kyou (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jin, Chun-Sil (School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology) ;
  • Kim, Gayoung (School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology) ;
  • Choi, Yonghan (School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology) ;
  • Suh, Myoung-Seok (Department of Atmospheric Science, Kongju National University) ;
  • Ahn, Joong-Bae (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University) ;
  • Hong, Song-You (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems) ;
  • Min, Seung-Ki (School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology) ;
  • Park, Seong-Chan (Korea Meteorological Administration) ;
  • Kang, Hyun-Suk (National Institute of Meteorological Science)
  • Received : 2015.10.31
  • Accepted : 2016.04.01
  • Published : 2016.05.31
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Abstract

In this study, the regional climate of the Korean Peninsula (KP) was dynamically downscaled using a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) forced by multi- representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios of HadGEM2-AO, and changes in summer precipitation were investigated. Through the evaluation of the present climate, the RCM reasonably reproduced long-term climatology of summer precipitation over the KP, and captured the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band. In future projections, all RCP experiments using different RCP radiative forcings (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 runs) simulated an increased summer precipitation over the KP. However, there were some differences in changing rates of summer precipitation among the RCP experiments. Future increases in summer precipitation were affected by future changes in moisture convergence and surface evaporation. Changing ranges in moisture convergences among RCP experiments were significantly larger than those in surface evaporation. This indicates that the uncertainty of changes in summer precipitation is related to the projection of the monsoon circulation, which determines the moisture convergence field through horizontal advection. Changes in the sub-seasonal evolution of Changma rain-band were inconsistent among RCP experiments. However, all experiments showed that Changma rain-band was enhanced during late June to early July, but it was weakened after mid-July due to the expansion of the western North Pacific subtropical high. These results indicate that precipitation intensity related to Changma rain-band will be increased, but its duration will be reduced in the future.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : Korea Meteorological Administration

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