KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Developing Extreme Drought Scenarios for Seoul based on the Long Term Precipitation Including Paleoclimatic Data

고기후 자료를 포함한 장기연속 강수자료에 의한 서울지역의 극한가뭄 시나리오 개발

  • 장호원 (중부대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 조형원 (중부대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 김태웅 (한양대학교 공학대학 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 이주헌 (중부대학교 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2017.01.01
  • Accepted : 2017.06.15
  • Published : 2017.08.01
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

In this study, long-term rainfall data of more than 300 years including the paleoclimatic rainfall data from Chuk Woo Kee (1777-1907), the modern observed rainfall data (1908-2015), and the climate change scenario (2016-2099), which were provided by KMA (Korea Meteorological Agency), was used to analyze the statistical characteristics of the extreme drought in the Seoul., Annual average rainfall showed an increasing trend over a entire period, and Wavelet transform analysis of SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) which is meteorological drought index, showed 64 to 80 months (5-6 Year) of drought periods for Chuk Woo Kee and KMA data, 96 to 128 months (8 to 10 years) of drought period for climate change data. The dry spell analysis showed that the drought occurrence frequency in the ancient period was high, but frequency was gradually decreased in the modern and future periods. In addition, through the analysis of the drought magnitude, 1901 was the extreme drought year in Seoul, and 1899-1907 was the worst consecutive 9 years long term drought in Seoul.

본 연구에서는 서울지역의 극한가뭄(Extreme Drought)에 대한 통계학적 특성을 분석하기 위해서 측우기 강수량 자료(1777~1907년)와 기상청에서 관측된 강수량(1908~2015년) 자료 및 기후변화시나리오를 반영한 강수량(2011~2099년) 자료를 활용한 300년 이상의 장기 강수량 자료를 이용하여 서울지역의 가뭄특성을 분석하였다. 경향성 분석결과, 장기간에 걸쳐 연평균 강우량이 증가하는 것으로 분석되었으며, 기상학적 가뭄지수인 SPI에 대한 Wavelet transform 분석결과 측우기와 기상청자료에서 공통적으로 64~80개월(5~6년), 기후변화자료에서는 96~128개월(8~10년) 주기로 가뭄발생 주기가 길어지는 것으로 나타났다. Dry spell 분석결과에서는 고대기간에서 가뭄발생 빈도가 높은 반면, 근 현대, 미래기간에서는 발생빈도가 점차 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 가뭄규모 분석을 통해서 서울지역의 가장 극심한 가뭄사상으로 1901년이 극심한 가뭄연도로 분석되었고, 1899~1907년이 서울지역에서 발생한 가뭄사상 중 9년 연속의 가장 극심한 연속가뭄으로 나타났다.

Keywords

References

  1. Byun, H. R. and Im, B. H. (2000). "Drought forecast of 2000 year using drought periodicity of Korea." Proc. of KWRA Conf., KWRA, pp. 304-314.
  2. Chang, I. G. (2016). Study on drought of Kangwon-do using SPEI and PMDI, M. S. dissertation, Kangwon national university.
  3. Cho, J. G. and Moon. B. K. (1997). "Restorations and analyses of rainfall amount observed by chukwookee." Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmo spheric Sciences, KMS, Vol. 33, No. 4, pp. 691-707.
  4. Hwang, J. H. (2016). Multivariate drought frequency analysis using hidden markov chain model and copula function, M. S. dissertation, Chonbuk national university.
  5. Jang, H, W., Cho, H. W., Kim, T. W. and Lee, J. H. (2016). "Quantitative characterization of historical drought events in Korea-focusing of outlier analysis of precipitation-." J. Korea Water Resour. Assoc, KWRA, Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 145-153. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.2.145
  6. Jeong, M. S., Kim, J. S., Jang, H. W. and Lee, J. H. (2016). "ROC evaluation for MLP ANN drought forecasting model." J. Korea Water Resour. Assoc, KWRA, Vol. 49, No. 10, pp. 877-885. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.10.877
  7. Jhun. J. G. and Moon. B. K. (1997). "Restorations and analyses of rainfall amount observed by chukwookee." Journal of Korean Meteorlogical Society, KMS, Vol. 33, No. 4, pp. 691-707.
  8. Jung, H. S., Lim, G. H. and Oh, J. H. (1999). "A study on the dry period of Korea using Chuk Woo Kee observed rainfall data." Proc. of KWRA Conf., KWRA, pp. 147-152.
  9. Jung, H. S., Park J. S., Lim, G. H. and Oh, J. H. (2000). "Trend analysis and wavelet transform of time series of precipitation including the Chukwookee observation in Seoul." The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 525-540.
  10. Kim, M. S., Moon, J. W., Moon, Y. I. and Lee M. R. (2012). "Spatial characteristics analysis of drought using SPI index and satellite image in the Korea peninsula." Korean Society of Civil Engineers Conf., KSCE, pp. 964-967.
  11. Lee, J. H., Jang, H. W., Kim, J. S. and Kim, T. W. (2015). "Quantitative characterization of historical drought events in Korea - Focusing on drought frequency analysis in the five major basins." J. Korea Water Resour. Assoc, KWRA, Vol. 48, No. 12, pp. 1011-1021. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.12.1011
  12. Lee, J. H., Jang, H. W., Kim, J. S. and Lee, J. C. (2013). "Drought forecasting using the multi layer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network model." J. Korea Water Resour. Assoc, KWRA, Vol. 46, No. 12, pp. 1249-1263. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.12.1249
  13. Lee, J. H., Kwon, H. H., Jang, H. W. and Kim, T. W. (2016). "Future changes in drought characteristics under extreme climate change over south Korea." Hindawi Publishing Corporation Advances in Meteorology, Vol. 2016, pp. 19
  14. Lee, J. H., Seo, J. W. and Kim, C. J. (2012). "Analysis on trends, periodicities and frequencies of Korean drought using drought indices." J. Korea Water Resour. Assoc, KWRA, Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 75-89. https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2012.45.1.75
  15. Lim G. H., Choi, E. H., Koo, K. S. and Won, M. S. (2012). "The 17th century dry period in the time series of the monthly rain and snow days of Seoul." Atmosphere, KMS, Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 381-386 https://doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2012.22.3.381
  16. Moon, J. W., Jung, C. G. and Lee, D. R. (2014). "Analysis of spring drought in seoul." Proc. of KWRA Conf., KWRA, pp. 615.
  17. Park, M. W., Lee, O. J., Park, Y. K. and Kim, S. D. (2015). "Future drought projection In korea under ar5 rcp climate change scenarios.", J. Korea Soc. Hazard Mitig, KOSHAM, Vol. 15, No. 6, pp. 423-433. https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2015.15.6.423