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The KMA Global Seasonal forecasting system (GloSea6) - Part 2: Climatological Mean Bias Characteristics

기상청 기후예측시스템(GloSea6) - Part 2: 기후모의 평균 오차 특성 분석

  • Hyun, Yu-Kyung (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Lee, Johan (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Shin, Beomcheol (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Choi, Yuna (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Ji-Yeong (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Lee, Sang-Min (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Ji, Hee-Sook (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Boo, Kyung-On (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Lim, Somin (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Hyeri (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Ryu, Young (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Park, Yeon-Hee (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Park, Hyeong-Sik (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Choo, Sung-Ho (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Hyun, Seung-Hwon (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Hwang, Seung-On (Climate Model Development Team, Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
  • 현유경 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 이조한 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 신범철 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 최유나 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 김지영 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 이상민 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 지희숙 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 부경온 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 임소민 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 김혜리 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 류영 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 박연희 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 박형식 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 추성호 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 현승훤 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀) ;
  • 황승언 (국립기상과학원 현업운영개발부 기후모델개발팀)
  • Received : 2021.12.23
  • Accepted : 2022.04.06
  • Published : 2022.06.30
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Abstract

In this paper, the performance improvement for the new KMA's Climate Prediction System (GloSea6), which has been built and tested in 2021, is presented by assessing the bias distribution of basic variables from 24 years of GloSea6 hindcasts. Along with the upgrade from GloSea5 to GloSea6, the performance of GloSea6 can be regarded as notable in many respects: improvements in (i) negative bias of geopotential height over the tropical and mid-latitude troposphere and over polar stratosphere in boreal summer; (ii) cold bias of tropospheric temperature; (iii) underestimation of mid-latitude jets; (iv) dry bias in the lower troposphere; (v) cold tongue bias in the equatorial SST and the warm bias of Southern Ocean, suggesting the potential of improvements to the major climate variability in GloSea6. The warm surface temperature in the northern hemisphere continent in summer is eliminated by using CDF-matched soil-moisture initials. However, the cold bias in high latitude snow-covered area in winter still needs to be improved in the future. The intensification of the westerly winds of the summer Asian monsoon and the weakening of the northwest Pacific high, which are considered to be major errors in the GloSea system, had not been significantly improved. However, both the use of increased number of ensembles and the initial conditions at the closest initial dates reveals possibility to improve these biases. It is also noted that the effect of ensemble expansion mainly contributes to the improvement of annual variability over high latitudes and polar regions.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 연구는 기상청 국립기상과학원 「기후예측 현업시스템 개발」(KMA2018-00322)의 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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