Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Estimation of Design Flood for the Gyeryong Reservoir Watershed based on RCP scenarios

RCP 시나리오에 따른 계룡저수지 유역의 설계홍수량 산정

  • Ryu, Jeong Hoon (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kang, Moon Seong (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Research Institute for Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Song, Inhong (Research Institute for Agricultural and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Park, Jihoon (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Song, Jung-Hun (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jun, Sang Min (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Kyeung (Department of Landscape Architecture and Rural System Engineering, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2014.08.13
  • Accepted : 2014.12.03
  • Published : 2015.01.30
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Abstract

Along with climate change, the occurrence and severity of natural disasters have been increased globally. In particular, the increase of localized heavy rainfalls have caused severe flood damage. Thus, it is needed to consider climate change into the estimation of design flood, a principal design factor. The main objective of this study was to estimate design floods for an agricultural reservoir watershed based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios. Gyeryong Reservoir located in the Geum River watershed was selected as the study area. Precipitation data of the past 30 years (1981~2010; 1995s) were collected from the Daejeon meteorological station. Future precipitation data based on RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 scenarios were also obtained and corrected their bias using the quantile mapping method. Probability rainfalls of 200-year frequency and PMPs were calculated for three different future spans, i.e. 2011~2040; 2025s, 2041~2070; 2055s, 2071~2100; 2085s. Design floods for different probability rainfalls were calculated using HEC-HMS. As the result, future probability rainfalls increased by 9.5 %, 7.8 % and 22.0 %, also design floods increased by 20.7 %, 5.0 % and 26.9 %, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s and tend to increase over those of 1995s. RCP4.5 scenario, especially, resulted in the greatest increase in design floods, 37.3 %, 36.5 % and 47.1 %, respectively, as compared to the past 1995s. The study findings are expected to be used as a basis to reduce damage caused by climate change and to establish adaptation policies in the future.

Keywords

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