Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회 논문집)

Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation (한국방재학회)
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Characteristics of Daily Precipitation Data Based on the Detailed Climate Change Ensemble Scenario Depending on the Regional Climate Models and the Calibration

지역기후모형별 남한 상세 기후변화 시나리오 일 강수자료의 보정 전·후 전망특성

  • Kim, Jungho (College of Engineering, Colorado State University) ;
  • Joo, Jingul (Department of Civil Engineering, Dongshin University)
  • 김정호 (콜로라도주립대학교 공과대학) ;
  • 주진걸 (동신대학교 토목공학과)
  • Received : 2015.07.07
  • Accepted : 2015.07.20
  • Published : 2015.08.31
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Abstract

This study examines characteristics of daily precipitation data resulted from the detailed climate change detailed ensemble scenarios for four regional climate models with the calibration implementation in South Korea. After calibrating, the number of days with precipitation was decreased by 12.9~33.9% depending on the regions and the regional climate models, but the trend of the spatial distribution was similar with the un-calibrated. Annual average precipitation had no change between before and after calibration. Correlation coefficients between observed data and predicted data for the number of days with precipitation and average daily precipitation of 73 gauge stations are 0.64~0.78 and 0.57~0.79 respectively. Thus, their correlation is high enough to say that they are related. It is expected that the results in this study will be useful to figure out the characteristics and the spatial distribution trend of daily precipitation data based on the detailed climate change ensemble scenarios for four regional climate models before using the daily precipitation data.

본 연구에서는 4개 지역기후모형을 활용한 남한 상세 기후변화 앙상블 시나리오 일 강수자료를 보정하고 보정된 자료의 특성을 검토하였다. 보정을 통해 연평균 강수일수가 지역과 지역기후모형에 따라 12.9~33.9% (6개 대표지점의 경우)로 감소하는 경향을 보였으나, 연평균 강수일수의 공간분포 경향은 보정 전후가 매우 유사하였다. 반면에 연평균 강수량의 특성에는 큰 변화가 없었다. 연평균 강수일수와 평균 일 강수량에 대한 관측 자료와 시나리오 일 강수자료간의 상관계수는 보정 전보다 보정 후가 더 높았으며, 73개 지점에 대한 상관계수 범위는 각각 0.64~0.78과 0.57~0.79이다. 본 연구에서 제시한 결과들은 남한 상세 기후변화 앙상블 시나리오 일 강수자료의 이용에 앞서 전망자료의 특성 파악 및 지역기후모형별 보정여부에 따른 전망경향을 확인할 수 있는 기초분석 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

Supported by : 국토교통과학기술진흥원

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