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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Variability of Wind Energy in Korea Using Regional Climate Model Ensemble Projection

지역 기후 앙상블 예측을 활용한 한반도 풍력 에너지의 시·공간적 변동성 연구

  • Kim, Yumi (Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Kongju National University) ;
  • Kim, Yeon-Hee (Applied Meteorology Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Nayun (Applied Climate and Meteorological Service Division, Cheongju Branch Office of Meteorology) ;
  • Lim, Yoon-Jin (Applied Meteorology Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Baek-Jo (Applied Meteorology Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
  • 김유미 (공주대학교 대기과학과) ;
  • 김연희 (국립기상과학원 응용기상연구과) ;
  • 김나윤 (대전지방기상청 청주기상지청 기후서비스과) ;
  • 임윤진 (국립기상과학원 응용기상연구과) ;
  • 김백조 (국립기상과학원 응용기상연구과)
  • Received : 2016.03.31
  • Accepted : 2016.07.11
  • Published : 2016.09.30
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Abstract

The future variability of Wind Energy Density (WED) over the Korean Peninsula under RCP climate change scenario is projected using ensemble analysis. As for the projection of the future WED, changes between the historical period (1981~2005) and the future projection (2021~2050) are examined by analyzing annual and seasonal mean, and Coefficient of Variation (CV) of WED. The annual mean of WED in the future is expected to decrease compared to the past ones in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 respectively. However, the CV is expected to increase in RCP 8.5. WEDs in spring and summer are expected to increase in both scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. In particular, it is predicted that the variation of CV for WED in winter is larger than other seasons. The time series of WED for three major wind farms in Korea exhibit a decrease trend over the future period (2021~2050) in Gochang for autumn, in Daegwanryeong for spring, and in Jeju for autumn. Through analyses of the relationship between changes in wind energy and pressure gradients, the fact that changes in pressure gradients would affect changes in WED is identified. Our results can be used as a background data for devising a plan to develop and operate wind farm over the Korean Peninsula.

Keywords

References

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