Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Assessment of the Meteorological Characteristics and Statistical Drought Frequency for the Extreme 2017 Spring Drought Event Across South Korea

2017년 극심한 봄 가뭄의 기상학적 특성 및 통계학적 가뭄빈도해석

  • Bang, Na-Kyoung (Department of Bioresources and Rural Systems Engineering, Hankyong National University) ;
  • Nam, Won-Ho (Department of Bioresources and Rural Systems Engineering, Hankyong National University) ;
  • Hong, Eun-Mi (School of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, Kangwon National University) ;
  • Michael, J. Hayes (School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln) ;
  • Mark, D. Svoboda (National Drought Mitigation Center, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln)
  • Received : 2018.05.30
  • Accepted : 2018.06.12
  • Published : 2018.07.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

The extreme 2017 spring drought affected a large portion of central and western South Korea, and was one of the most climatologically driest spring seasons over the 1961-2016 period of record. This drought was characterized by exceptionally low precipitation, with total precipitation from January to June being 50% lower than the mean normal precipitation (1981-2010) over most of western South Korea. In this study, for the quantitative drought impact analysis, the widely-used Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the statistical drought frequency are compared with observed meteorological characteristics and anomalies. According to the drought frequency analysis of monthly cumulative precipitation during January and May in 2017, Gyeonggi-do, Chungcheong-do, and Jeollanam-do areas showed more than drought frequency over 100 years. Gyeongsangnam-do area showed more than drought frequency over 200 years based on annual precipitation in 2017. The South Korean government (Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) and Korea Rural Community Corporation (KRC)) have been operating a government-level drought monitoring system since 2016. Results from this study can be used to improve the drought monitoring applications of future drought events, as well as drought planning and preparedness in South Korea.

Keywords

References

  1. Bae, D. H., K. H. Son, and H. A. Kim, 2013. Derivation & evaluation of drought threshold level considering hydro-meteorological data on South Korea. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 46(3): 287-299 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.8.287.
  2. Cho, S. J., H. D. Jun, M. J. Park, and S. D. Kim, 2011. Record breaking occurrence frequency of air temperature and precipitation. Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 11(5): 345-352 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.9798/KOSHAM.2011.11.5.345
  3. Choi, W., and Y. A. Kim, 2016. Relationship between the East-Asian cold anomalies in winter of 2010/11 and blocking. Atmosphere. Korean Meteorological Society 26(1): 193-201 (in Korean). doi:10.14191/Atmos.2016.26.1.193.
  4. Edwards, D. C., and T. B. McKee, 1997. Characteristics of 20th century drought in the United States at multiple time scales. Climatology Report 97-2, Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado.
  5. Ford, T. W., 2014. Precipitation anomalies in Eastern-Central Iowa from 1640-present. Journal of Hydrology 519(A): 918-924. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.08.021.
  6. Hayes, M. J., M. D. Svoboda, D. A. Wilhite, and O. V. Vanyarkho, 1999. Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 80: 429-438. doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0429:MTDUTS>2.0.CO;2.
  7. Hayes, M. J., O. V. Wilhelmi, and C. L. Knutson, 2004. Reducing drought risk: Bridging theory and practice. Natural Hazards Review 5(2): 106-113. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2004)5:2(106).
  8. Jose, D. S., C. Fu, A. Cancelliere, D. Dustin, D. Bode, A. Pineda, and E. Vincent, 2005. Characterizing the severity and risk of drought in the Poudre River, Colorado. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 131(5): 383-393. doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2005)131:5(383).
  9. Kang, I. J., and Y. N. Yoon, 2002. Drought evaluation by a drought frequency formula. Journal of Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 2(3): 89-99 (in Korean).
  10. Kim, D. J., 2017. Decoupling of the spatiotemporal pattern of agricultural drought from that of meteorological drought in Korea. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 19(3): 140-152 (in Korean). doi:10.5532/KJAFM.2017.19.3.140.
  11. Kim, G. S., H. G. Park, C. H. Park, 2008. Analysis of drought index of the gum Ho River basin using satellite and ground station data. Journal of Korean Society of Civil Engineers 2009(10): 3451-3454 (in Korean).
  12. Kim, G. S., and G. C. Lee, 2012. Application of a non-stationary frequency analysis method for estimating probable precipitation in Korea. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineer 54(5): 141-153 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2012.54.5.141.
  13. Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), 2018. 2017 Abnormal climate report. Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea.
  14. Kwak, J. W., S. D. Lee, Y. S. Kim, and H. S. Kim, 2013. Return period estimation of droughts using drought variables from standardized precipitation index. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 46(8): 795-805 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2013.46.8.795.
  15. Lee, B. R., J. H. Sung, and E. S. Chung, 2015a. Comparison of meteorological drought and hydrological drought index. Journal of Korean Water Resources Association 48(1): 69-78 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.1.69.
  16. Lee, J. H., J. W. Seo, and C. J. Kim, 2012. Analysis on trends, periodicities and frequencies of Korean drought using drought indices. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 45(1): 75-89 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2012.45.1.75.
  17. Lee, J. H., H. W. Jang, J. S. Kim, and T. W. Kim, 2015b. Quantitative characterization of historical drought events in Korea -Focusing on drought frequency analysis in the five major basins-. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 48(12): 1011-1021 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2015.48.12.1011.
  18. Lee, J. J., H. H. Kwon, and K. N. Hwang, 2010. Concept of seasonality analysis of hydrologic extreme variables and design rainfall estimation using nonstationary frequency analysis. Journal of the Korean Water Resources Association 43(8): 733-745 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2010.43.8.733.
  19. Lee, T. S., and C. Y. Son, 2016. Analyzing the drought event in 2015 through statistical drought frequency analysis. Journal of Korean Water Resources Association 49(3): 177-186 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.3.177.
  20. McKee, T. B., N. J. Doeskin, and J. Kleist, 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Preprints, 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, CA, American Meteorological Society: 179-184.
  21. Nam, W. H., M. J. Hayes, D. A. Wilhite, and M. D. Svoboda, 2015a. Projection of temporal trends on drought characteristics using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in South Korea. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineer 57(1): 37-45 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2015.57.1.037.
  22. Nam, W. H., M. J. Hayes, M. D. Svoboda, T. Tadesse, and D. A. Wilhite, 2015b. Drought hazard assessment in the context of climate change for South Korea. Agricultural Water Management 160: 106-117. doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2015.06.029.
  23. Nam, W. H., E. M. Hong, J. Y. Choi, T. G. Kim, M. J. Hayes, and M. D. Svoboda, 2017. Assessment of the extreme 2014-2015 drought events in North Korea using weekly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineer 59(4): 65-74 (in Korean). doi:10.5389/KSAE.2017.59.4.065.
  24. Oh, T. S., Y. I. Moon, S. S. Kim, and G. S. Park, 2011. Frequency analysis of meteorologic drought indices using boundary kernel density function. Journal of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers 31(2B): 87-98 (in Korean).
  25. Ryoo, K. S., and S. H. Lee, 2003. Comparative analysis of regional and at-site analysis for the design rainfall by Log-Pearson Type III and GEV Distribution. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineer 2003(0):443-446.
  26. Svoboda, M., D. LeComte, M. Hayes, R. Heim, K. Gleason, J. Angel, B. Rippey, R. Tinker, M. Palecki, D. Stooksbury, D. Miskus, and S. Stephens, 2002. The drought monitor. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 83(8): 1181-1190. doi:10.1175/1520-0477-83.8.1181.
  27. Svoboda, M. D., B. A. Fuchs, C. C. Poulsen, and J. R. Norhwehr, 2015. The drought risk atlas: Enhancing decision support for drought risk management in the United States. Journal of Hydrology 526: 274-286. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.01.006.
  28. Wilks, D. S., 1995. Statistical methods in the atmospheric science. Academic Press edited by Dmowska, R., and J. R. Holton, San Diego, California.
  29. Yeon, J. M., S. H. Byun, J. K. Lee, and T. W. Kim, 2007. Evaluation of droughts in Seoul using two-dimensional drought frequency analysis. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 40(4): 335-343 (in Korean). https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2007.40.4.335
  30. Yoon, Y. N., and M. J. Park, 1997. Regional drought frequency analysis of monthly rainfall data by the method of L-moments. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 30(1): 55-62 (in Korean).
  31. Yoon, Y. N., C. Yoo, J. S. Lee, and J. H. Ahn, 1999. On the change of flood and drought occurrence frequency due to global warming: 1. Change of daily rainfall depth distribution due to different monthly/yearly rainfall depth. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 32(6): 617-625 (in Korean).
  32. Yu, J. S., J. Y. Yoo, J. H. Lee, and T. W. Kim, 2016. Estimation of drought risk through the bivariate drought frequency analysis using copula functions. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 49(3): 217-225 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.3.217.
  33. Yu, M., Y. Cho, T. W. Kim, and H. S. Chae, 2018. Analysis of drought propagation using hydrometeorological data: From meterological drought to agricultural drought. Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 51(3): 195-205 (in Korean). doi:10.3741/JKWRA.2018.51.3.195.